Exhibit 1: E-Bus Market Size
and Penetration in India (FY24 vs. FY30)
Most of this growth will come from intra-city buses,
given their predictable routes and depot-based operations. Inter-city and
long-haul electrification will remain limited in the near term due to range and
charging constraints.
Why is TCO the game-changer?
The total cost of ownership (TCO) for E-buses is
increasingly favorable, especially when supported by incentives and high asset
utilization. Compared to diesel buses, E-buses save on energy consumption and
maintenance, with lifecycle savings of up to 7-10%.
Exhibit 2: TCO Comparison:
Electric vs. diesel buses
Moreover, cities are exploring innovative deployment
models, such as public-private partnerships, leasing, and battery-swapping, to mitigate upfront costs and enhance uptime.
What are the expansion plans of OEMs?
E-bus manufacturers are expanding their portfolios and domestic
manufacturing capacities in direct response to rising EV-specific demand from
governments across India. This strategic alignment with public procurement
needs is shaping product innovation, capex allocation, and operational models.
Companies such as Tata Motors, Eicher, PMI
Electro Mobility, Olectra, Switch Mobility, JBM Auto, etc, are introducing new electric
and alternative fuel bus variants, investing in manufacturing
infrastructure, and enhancing R&D capabilities.
Several players are securing large public
contracts, while others are forming partnerships and scaling up
production to meet state-level electrification targets. Together, these
OEMs are positioning themselves to serve a fast-growing market driven by
central schemes and state-led transport electrification programs.
Challenges to watch out for?
Despite growing momentum in E-bus adoption,
several persistent challenges continue to affect the pace and scale of
deployment. These span financial constraints, infrastructure
limitations, and operational hurdles that particularly impact public
transport agencies and state-led programs. As the ecosystem evolves, addressing
these issues is critical to unlocking mass adoption and long-term viability.
However, with over 25 states drafting or
implementing EV policies and nearly 10,000 buses sanctioned under central
schemes, the ecosystem is actively maturing.
Exhibit 3: Challenges in E-bus adoption
What should stakeholders do?
- OEMs need to localize
production and innovate on modular, fast-charging buses
- Infra providers
must accelerate depot electrification and megawatt-level charging hubs
- STUs must leverage
central schemes to transition rapidly to electric fleets via opex models
- Private operators
should explore leasing models and B2G contracts in smart cities
Conclusion
India’s E-bus story is not just about replacing diesel
buses – it is about building a future-ready, sustainable public transport
system. With economics turning favorable and policy support strong, the E-bus
boom is here to stay. Stakeholders who invest early, build scale, and integrate
across the value chain will lead the charge.
For a deeper dive, refer to the full report- Electrify30:
The Future of Mobility